Bulls Path to the Playoffs

A massive game tonight for your Franklin Bulls as they take on the Taranaki Airs in a must win. Both teams are still vying for a playoff spot, but a loss for either team will make it difficult to secure that final playoff berth. While the Bulls still have three games in hand, it’s the points differential race that could decide who makes the top six and who misses out.

Here is the Bulls “Path to the playoffs” - What will stand in the way?

Firstly, losing any of the next three games. Just one loss will make it an uphill battle. Why?

Nelson and Tauranga have better points differential so tying with them means the Bulls are out, unless the Bulls can overcome the points differential deficit.

Nelson needs to beat the Whai to get to 7 wins. If they do that’s great for the Bulls and great for Nelson. Nelson would finish with 7 and Tauranga will also be on 7 (as long as they beat the Nuggets).

It’s close, but Nelson would be on top if their points differential stays similar to now.

But if the Whai win their last two games vs the Nuggets (who are 5th and locked in) and the Giants, they would finish with 8 wins. Plus their points differential being very good would mean the Bulls would have to improve margin and win their final three games.

To get ahead on points differential the Bulls (without knowing other results) would be needing to win by around 50-60 points across the last three games and hope that the rapid league games are in our favour and that other results are close. Possible? Yes.

The Jets could also get in the Bulls way, if they beat Franklin they would finish with 8 wins, meaning as long as Tauranga lose one of their last two games, the Jets would qualify.

The Airs path to 8 wins is through the Bulls and the on-form Tuatara. if they win both they also get to 8. Both Airs and Jets need the Whai to lose one of their last two games. If that happens and the two central North Island teams tie, the Jets currently have the better differential and would qualify.

If all teams, Giants, Whai, Jets, Airs and Bulls finish on 7 wins, points differential matters. On this basis, currently the Giants would go through.

With 7 wins the Airs and Jets points differential is almost impossible to claw back with so few games in hand. More than 100 point gaps to over come.

The Bulls however have around 50/60 points difference to make up across three games and Rapid League. Very doable. But in no way easy.

Summary

Bulls need to win three to get to 8 and then hope the Whai lose one of their last two. Or if they tie on 8 wins with the Whai, they would have to improve their points differential by around 60 points (based on current numbers). If the Bulls lose one and finish on 7 with all other teams, they would have to vastly improve their points differential to beat the Giants or Whai.

Giants need to beat Whai. If they make it to 7, they qualify if no teams make 8 wins and because the Giants have the better points Differential. (Based on current points differential numbers)

Whai need to win both their games to get to 8 and to qualify.  If they lose 1, they need to improve points differential to qualify over the Giants.

Jets have one game left against the Bulls and need to beat Bulls to get to 8. Lose and they are out. If they win, they will qualify if the Whai don’t make it to 8. If the Whai win out the Jets will be out of the race on Points Differential and the math in a tie with the Whai just doesn’t work for the Jets. If they tie on 7 with either the Giants, Whai or Bulls they lose on points differential.

The Airs also need to win both of their last games to get to 8. And much the same as the Jets hope the Whai don’t get there. In the Airs case they also need the Bulls to beat the Jets as the Jets have the better points tally. The Airs will also have to beat the Tuatara who are desperate to finish top of the table and have two must win games to get that spot. But of the Airs lose to the Bulls they are done. No scenario works for the Airs if they get to 7 and with the Giants and Whai playing in the final round, one of them is guaranteed to get to 7.

There are some more possibilities mathematically that could come into play but the most likely scenarios are above. The Bulls must win! Plain and simple.